Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension triggered by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: hopeful statements are released from various governments. Immense energy is expended on restraining particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from Russian territory, a ability enabled by current data. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to engage hostile cruise missiles roared overhead – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: defensive missiles fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably supplied through partner states. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly gives way to sober acceptance: possibly the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a heavy machine gun fired at a aerial vehicle close by, part of a defensive team – probably allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: seven people killed, damage and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a reliance that European nations are evidently unprepared to replace in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from Washington sparked intense emotion, controversy and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from Washington follows the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This cycle will, certainly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame specific actors of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington works based on a principle understood by international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House believes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to surrender the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does nothing to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from thinking that the status quo will not change more in its favour in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing civilians and areas but averting a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to terminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show certain reluctance to modify developments, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
