Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in academia but very few government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. Each writes two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over flags and symbols, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has got important lessons to gain from the other's positions."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
